Trump trade war with China revives recession, bear market fears

Donald Trump’s trade war created turmoil in global markets. Stocks and oil prices declined due to fears of China’s response. Trump paused tariffs for 90 days, raising hopes. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned trade negotiation interests from many countries. Uncertainty led to volatile trading. The US and Vietnam agreed to trade talks.

What just happened in US bond market

The selloff is the latest sign of the power of government bond markets to act as a restraint on policymakers, while talk of a return of so-called bond vigilantes has risen in recent years.

Repo rate could be headed to 5.25-5.5% amid growth fears, global uncertainties

Some expect a slightly deeper cycle, with expectations of a terminal rate at 5% by December 2025 as the Reserve Bank of India surprised the market with a change in its stance to ‘accommodative’ from ‘neutral’, along with a downgrade in growth forecasts, “decisive improvement” in the inflation outlook and commitment to surplus liquidity.

Dollar bond credit spreads widen along tariff fault lines

Private sector companies have seen their spreads widen, whereas government-owned banks and state-owned companies have largely remained steady, with yields on their dollar bonds remaining flat over the past week following the tariff announcement. However, relief came from tariff pause for some issuers like Biocon Biologics’ 6.67% due 2029 rising 4 points today, though still […]

Trump does a Warren Buffett, but doubters call it insiders’ Buffet

A key question is, Was Trump already contemplating the tariff pause when he made that post? “Over the last few days, I’ve been thinking about it,” said Trump himself when asked yesterday directly about when he arrived at his decision, but then added to the confusion, stating, “Fairly early this morning.”