Inflation risk more persistent than growth shock, says Tanvee Gupta Jain amid oil price surge

May 5, 2026

Geopolitical tensions in West Asia are impacting India’s economy, leading UBS Securities to lower its GDP growth forecast to 6.2% and revise inflation estimates upward. Supply-side disruptions are evident, while demand resilience may face challenges if energy pressures persist. Inflation concerns are expected to linger longer than growth impacts.

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