Monetary tightening behind us; liquidity to remain key focus for RBI

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to maintain its pause on monetary tightening through FY24, despite markets anticipating rate cuts. Soft inflation, real policy rates above 1%, easing external balance pressures and global monetary tightening at its peak have signaled a dovish turn by the RBI MPC, but concerns over monsoon and oil prices and resilient growth could cause further pause. Liquidity conditions are expected to ease in 2QFY24 with government spending trends continuing, but tighten yet again in 2HFY24 with seasonally higher currency in circulation leakage. The focus is on how the RBI will manage liquidity conditions and policy stance.

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