Steep rate hikes in the US and a slowdown in growth has increased the risk of the world’s largest economy entering into a recession. This does not bode well for India as, historically, domestic equities have entered into a bear market when the US slips into recession.
The correction seen by domestic equities in seven consecutive sessions indicates that investors have factored in a 50-basis-point hike in the repo rate by the RBI.
The index’s immediate resistance on the upside is at 36,400, and a breach of this will witness some short covering move on the upside towards 39,000 levels. The lower-end support is placed at 37,500. If that is breached, it will aggravate the sell-off towards 37,000-36,000 levels.
We feel the overall tone would remain bearish until the Nifty reclaims 17,200. On the downside, a decisive break of 16,800 could further fuel the decline. Participants should align their positions accordingly and maintain positions on both sides.
NSE reshuffles its indices semi-annually based on multiple criteria and six-month data ending January and July. The latest rejig will have Adani Enterprises overthrowing Shree Cement from Nifty50 which houses India’s top 50 listed companies based on market capitalisation.
Expect outperformance along with pain; if Nifty breaks 16,800 another attempt to bottom out likely: Gautam Shah
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