The prediction conundrum: What creates market cycles

Let’s take another example. In December 2007, economists in the Wall Street Journal forecasting panel predicted only a 38 per cent likelihood of a recession over the next year. We know what transpired, but this was especially remarkable because the data would later reveal that the economy was already in recession at the time of the forecast!

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Multibaggers, mirages and market math

An experiment demonstrates how survivorship bias can create the illusion of market genius. By selectively sharing successful predictions and discarding failures, a perfect track record

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